Hello world!

For the twentieth straight month and in twenty-one of the past twenty-two months, the number of home sales in Tallahassee has declined. But as I produced this newsletter, we were only five home sales short of posting a gain in November (and it’s likely that not all home sales have been posted yet in the Tallahassee MLS).

The last time Tallahassee experienced year-over-year gains in home sales was March of 2022, and though our data from November is still being generated, here’s where we stand today and what I think happens next.

The current US housing market is characterized by a glaring imbalance: a pronounced undersupply of homes.

This imbalance is not just a recent phenomenon but a result of long-standing trends and regulatory challenges. As populations grow and cities expand, the demand for housing has surged, but the supply response has been insufficient, leading to a market where demand significantly overshadows supply.

Check out our latest one-page special housing report revealing how long it’s taking to build homes today.

The number of homes sold in 2023 will be lower than average, though the final number will be fairly decent when considering what we’ve been facing.

The graph in this week’s one-page special housing report plots Tallahassee home sales from January through October for each of the past 22 years, and the image it provides makes it clear that we are far from a worst-year-ever for home sales in Tallahassee.

For the first time since November of 2000, mortgage interest rates pushed higher than the 50-year average.

Last week’s average rate (Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate weekly survey) reached 7.76%, slightly surpassing the 7.74% average recorded over the past fifty years.

This week’s one-page special housing update demonstrates the impact of changing mortgage interest rates over the past three years and, when coupled with soaring home prices, reveals the real and present home affordability crisis.

Since so many people are expecting significant price declines that lead to foreclosures (like we saw during the housing bubble 15 years ago), I find it’s healthy to regularly evaluate the current status (or health) of home sellers in the Tallahassee housing market today.

This week’s one-page special housing update monitors foreclosed homes as a percentage of the overall market. Are we seeing another 2008 forming?